Current Mortgage Rates: What's Happening and What to Expect

Generated Title: Mortgage Rate Whiplash: Are We Really Back to Normal?

Okay, let's cut the crap and dive into what's actually happening with mortgage rates. We're seeing headlines about rates "inching down" and being "significantly lower than last year." But are we really out of the woods, or is this just a temporary blip in a longer, more painful trend?

Data Dive: The Devil's in the Basis Points

The raw numbers paint a mixed picture. Optimal Blue data from late November 2025 pegs the average 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage at 6.236%. That's a smidge down from the prior week (6.215%) and a month ago (6.149%). Zillow's numbers are slightly lower, at 6.11% for the 30-year fixed. The discrepancy? Different data sources and methodologies, of course. (Always check the fine print, folks.) What are today's mortgage interest rates: November 21, 2025?

But before you start popping champagne, let's remember where we were in January 2025: above 7%. And let's really remember the historical lows of 2.65% in January 2021. Those rates, fueled by pandemic-era government intervention, are about as likely to return as I am to become a TikTok influencer. Experts agree we won’t see rates in the 2% to 3% range in our lifetimes. Absent another major crisis, of course.

The narrative being pushed is one of relief, but the magnitude of that relief is questionable. We're talking basis points here – fractions of a percentage point. It's like celebrating a drizzle after a drought; it's something, but it ain't a solution.

And here's the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. The Fed started cutting the federal funds rate in September 2024, and the expectation was that mortgage rates would follow. They briefly did, but then bounced right back up. We even had a second rate cut in October. So, what gives? Are mortgage rates simply divorced from the Fed's actions?

The Fed's Shadowy Balance Sheet

The answer, as always, is more complex than a simple headline. The article alludes to the Fed's balance sheet, and this is where things get interesting. While everyone obsesses over the federal funds rate, the Fed's unwinding of its balance sheet – its decision not to reinvest in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) – is putting upward pressure on rates.

Think of it like this: the federal funds rate is the steering wheel, but the balance sheet is the engine. You can steer all you want, but if the engine's working against you, you're not going anywhere fast.

The article notes that the Fed can influence interest rates on financial products such as mortgages both through deciding to hike or cut the federal funds rate and through what actions it decides to take regarding its balance sheet.

Now, a methodological critique: how reliable are these "expert" opinions, anyway? Who are these experts, and what skin do they have in the game? Are they economists at big banks who benefit from higher rates, or independent analysts with a track record of accurate predictions? The article doesn't say, which makes me deeply skeptical of their pronouncements.

Adjustable-Rate Mortgages: A Siren Song?

The report also touches on adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). The argument is that they might be attractive to short-term homeowners or investors who plan to flip a property before the rates adjust. This is true, but it's also a dangerous game for the average buyer.

ARMs generally start with low fixed interest periods lasting three to 10 years before shifting into adjustment periods. During the adjustments, your rate will be influenced by factors including benchmark indices like SOFR.

Why? Because life happens. People's plans change. What starts as a short-term investment can easily turn into a long-term commitment, and suddenly you're facing a rate hike you didn't anticipate. It's like playing Russian roulette with your financial future.

The numbers bear this out. Fixed-rate mortgages account for roughly 92% of all U.S. mortgages – a testament to their reliability. People crave stability, especially when it comes to something as important as their home.

Don't Believe the Hype: It's Still a Grind

The data suggests that while mortgage rates have indeed come down from their peak in early 2025, we're hardly in a borrower's paradise. We're still hovering around 6%, which is high by recent standards, and the Fed's actions are a mixed bag. The “golden handcuffs” of low pandemic-era rates persist, trapping homeowners who would otherwise move.

The key takeaway? Don't make rash decisions based on headlines. Do your own research, crunch the numbers, and understand the risks before you sign on the dotted line.

The Market Still Has a Fever